Monthly outlook end-November 2019
- 06 December 2019
- 5 minutes
We’ve waited all year and, finally, we have some clarity and stability following the latest general election. The Conservative Party victory has provided the UK with the prospects of a relatively stable political base from which economic and other policies can be built. With this in mind, we expect Mr. Johnson’s government to push the Brexit deal through by the end of January.
As we have already seen, this has helped to maintain the higher value to the pound relative to other currencies since the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit outcome began to recede a few months ago. In the short term, this is likely to limit price rises in the stocks of companies whose revenues are dominated by exports, such as those listed on the FTSE 100. More domestically focused companies, such as those listed on the FTSE 250 have a brighter immediate outlook. This “risk-on” attitude is likely to reduce the demand for and price of lower-risk rated bonds, such as those issued by the government.
Looking further afield, the chances of a Santa rally (a rise in stock prices over the Christmas period) were given a substantial boost after US President Trump signed off a preliminary trade deal with China.
The details have yet to be worked out but this is still good news. As well as providing some hope of an improved outlook for the global economy, this has prevented the implementation of further tariffs on Chinese imports into the US…for the time being. For now, though, investors are likely to be fairly upbeat about the short-term outlook for global trade, economic growth and asset prices over the coming weeks.
Our general view of assets over the coming months.
Any views expressed are our in-house views as at the time of publishing.
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